A conceptual framework for the future of sea-level rise and land uplift changes in the Vaasa region of Finland
DOI: 10.54647/geosciences17154 76 Downloads 85164 Views
Author(s)
Abstract
This paper uses the Vaasa region of Finland as an illustrative case study to explore how the relationships between climate change, sea-level rise and land uplift may offer applications in forecasting future land uplift changes. Using a comparative literature review and analysis of open source data, a conceptual framework is developed to ex-amine causes-effect relationships between them. The sea-level rise around the world by the end of the 21st century shows dramatic effects all over the world. However, the rate of land uplift in the Vaasa region is higher than the rate of sea-level rise. This localised finding is different from global average rates for land uplift and sea-level rise. This indicates that although climate change is global, it can lead to very different regional expressions. This paper presents a first attempt to combine sea-level rise and land uplift into a single cohesive framework to sup-port future land uplift management. The results of this paper establish a conceptual framework for studies of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change that can ben-efit local, regional and global communities.
Keywords
land rising; climate change effect; coastal region; forecasting; cause and effect
Cite this paper
Girgibo Nebiyu, Lü Xiaoshu, Hiltunen Erkki, Peura Pekka, Yang Tong, Dai Zhenxue,
A conceptual framework for the future of sea-level rise and land uplift changes in the Vaasa region of Finland
, SCIREA Journal of Geosciences.
Volume 6, Issue 1, February 2022 | PP. 23-57.
10.54647/geosciences17154
References
[ 1 ] | Ablain, M. et al. (2019). Uncertainty in satellite estimates of global mean sea-level changes, trend and acceleration. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 11: 1189–1202 pp. [Cited 27 Jan. 2021 |
[ 2 ] | Amante, C. and Eakins, B.W. (2009). ETOPO1 1 Arc-Minute global relief model: Procedure, data source and analysis. NOAA Technical Memorandum NESDIS NGDC-24, 19 pp. [Cited 01 July 2021 |
[ 3 ] | Apelgren, K. and Lernstål, Rolf (1991). Variation in Galium Palustre s. Lat. in the Baltic land-uplift area. Nordic Journal of Botany, vol. 10, no. 6, pp. 565-592. [Cited 01 July 2021 |
[ 4 ] | Begg, D.; Fischer, S.; and Dornbusch, R. (2001). Foundation of Economics. United Kingdom: McGraw-Hill international (UK) Limited. ISBN: 0-07-709754-8. |
[ 5 ] | Bill, N.S.; Mix, H.T.; Clark, P.U.; Reilly S. P.; and Jensen, B.J.L. (2018). A stable isotope record of late Cenozoic surface uplift of southern Alaska. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 482 (2018) 300 – 311 pp. [Cited 01 July 2021 |
[ 6 ] | Boman, A., Fröjdö, S., Backlund, K. and Åström, M.E. (2010). Impact of Isostatic land uplift and artificial drainage on oxidation of brackish-water sediments rich in metastable iron sulfide. The Elsevier Journal (Science-Direct): Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta Vol. 74 (2010) 1268 – 1281 pp[Cited 01 July 2021 |
[ 7 ] | Booth, A.; Papaioannou, D. and Sutton, A. (2012). Systematic Approaches to a Successful Literature Review. SAGE Publications Ltd. ISBN: 978-0-85702-134-2 and ISBN: 978-0-85702-135-9 (pbk). |
[ 8 ] | Brunton, G.; Oliver, S.; Oliver, K.; and Lorenc (2006). Final Report: A Synthesis of Research Addressing Children’s, Young People’s and Parent’s Views of Walking and Cycling for Transport. London, UK: EPPI-Centre the Social Science Research Unit, Institute of Education, University of London. 131 pp. ISBN: 0-9551548-9-8. |
[ 9 ] | Bryhn, A.C. and Hkanson, L. (2011). Land uplift effects on the phosphorus cycle of the Baltic Sea. Environmental Earth Sciences, vol. 62, no. 8, pp. 1761-1770. [Cited 01 July 2021 |
[ 10 ] | Bryman, A. and Burgess, R.G. (1994). Analyzing Qualitative Data. London, UK and New York, USA: Routledge. ISBN: 0-415-06062-1 (hbk) and ISBN: 0-415-06063-X (pbk). |
[ 11 ] | Church J. A. and White N. J. (2011). Sea-Level Rise from the Late 19th to the Early 21st Century. Surv. Geophys 32: 585–602, [Cited 01 July 2021 |
[ 12 ] | Dasgupta, S. and Meisner, C. (2009). Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: A Review of the Scientific Evidence. 48 525 pp. 118. Washington D. C., U.S. A: The World Bank Environmental Department Papers – Climate Change Serious. |
[ 13 ] | Ekman, M. (1995). Postglacial uplift of the Åland Islands, and the World’s oldest preserved sea level gauge. Small publications in Historical Geophysics, No.1, pp. 1-15. Åland Islands: Summer Institute for Historical Geophysics. |
[ 14 ] | Environment.fi (2019). The Bay of Bothnia [online |
[ 15 ] | EPI (2021). Environmental Performance Index [EPI). {Online |
[ 16 ] | Farlex Dictionary (2018). The free dictionary by Farlex: Causality theory (Redirected from cause and effect theory). [Online |
[ 17 ] | Fjeldskaar, W., Lindholm, C., Dehls, J.F.and Fjeldskaar, I. (2000). Postglacial uplift, neotectonics and seismicity in Fennoscandia. Quanternary Science Review 19 (2000) 1413 – 1422. |
[ 18 ] | Fjeldskaar, W. (1997). Flexural rigidity of Fennoscandia inferred from the postglacial uplift. Tectonics, vol. 16, no. 4, pp. 596-608. [Cited 01 July 2021 |
[ 19 ] | Genno, R. and Endo, N. (2018). Adjustment processes of mountainous rivers affected by tilting uplift: Laboratory experiments and a case study of Yakushima Island, Japan. Island Arc. 2019; 28: e12278. [Cited 01 July 2021 |
[ 20 ] | Girgibo, N. (2021a). The effect of climate Change on Water and Environment Resources in Kvarken Archipelago area. University of Vaasa Reports 20. 90 pp. 2016 – 2021. Vaasa, Finland: University of Vaasa, Tritonia, library. [Cited 01 July 2021 |
[ 21 ] | Girgibo, N. (2022). Seaside energy solutions, land uplift, and climate change in UNESCO heritage protected area: A mixed-method investigation. Dissertation (Forthcoming). Vaasa, Finland: University of Vaasa, Tritonia library. |
[ 22 ] | Gleadow, A.J.W., McKelvey, B.E. and Ferguson, K.U. (1984). Uplift history of the Transantarctic Mountains in the Dry Valleys area, Southern Victoria Land, Antarctica, from apatite fission track ages. New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics, vol. 27, no. 4, pp. 457-464. [Cited 01 July 2021 |
[ 23 ] | Hammond, W.C., Blewitt, G. and Kreemer, C. (2016). GPS imaging of vertical land motion in California and Nevada: Implications for Sierra Nevada uplift. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, vol. 121, no. 10, pp. 7681-7703. [Cited 01 July 2021 |
[ 24 ] | Hannah, L. (2011). Climate Change Biology. Burlington, USA: Elsevier Ltd. 402 pp. ISBN: 978-0-12-374182-0. |
[ 25 ] | Hansen, Kip. (2017). Sea level: Rise and fall – part 2- tide gauge [Online |
[ 26 ] | Hela, Ilmo (1953). A study of land upheaval at the Finnish coast. Merentutkimuslaitoksen Julkaisu N.o. 158. Helsinki. |
[ 27 ] | Helmens, K.F.; Väliranta M.; Engels, S. and Shala, Shy. (2012). Large shifts in vegetation and climate during the early Weichselian (MIS 5d-c) inferred from multi-proxy evidence at Sokli (northern Finland). The Elsevier Journal: Quaternary Science Reviews, Vol. 41 (2012), 22-38 pp. [Cited 01 July 2021 |
[ 28 ] | IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. New York, USA: Cambridge University Press. 996 pp. ISBN: 978-0-521-88009-1. |
[ 29 ] | IPCC (2013). Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. New York, USA: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 1535 pp. ISBN: 978-1-107-05799-9. |
[ 30 ] | IPCC (2019). Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate [Eds.: H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, M. Tignor, E. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, M. Nicolai, A. Okem, J. Petzold, B. Rama and N. Weyer |
[ 31 ] | IPCC (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group - I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR6 WGI). |
[ 32 ] | ISO 31000 (2015). ISO 31000 - Risk Management: A Practical Guide for SMEs. 21 pp. Geneva, Switzerland: ISO Copyright Office. ISBN: 978-92-67-10645-8. |
[ 33 ] | Johansson, M.M. (2014). Sea Level Changes on Finnish Coast and Their Relationships to Atmospheric Factors. Dissertation, 54 pp. Helsinki, Finland: Finnish Metrological Institute. [Cited 01 July 2021 |
[ 34 ] | Johansson, M.M.; Kahma, K.K.; Boman, H.; and Launiainen, J. (2004). Scenarios for sea level rise on Finnish coast. BOREAL ENVIRONMENT RESEARCH 9: 153 -166 pp. ISSN 1239 – 6095. |
[ 35 ] | Kitoh, Akio. (1997). Mountain uplift and surface temperature changes. Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 24, no. 2, pp. 185-188[Cited 01 July 2021 |
[ 36 ] | Kunapo, J.; et al. (2018). A spatially explicit framework for climate adaptation. Urban Water Journal, vol. 15, no. 2, pp. 159-166. [Cited 01 July 2021 |
[ 37 ] | Kääriäinen, E. (1953). On the recent uplift of the earth’s crust in Finland. Fennia 77, N:o 2. Helsinki: Printed by Tilgmann. |
[ 38 ] | Lowrie, William. (2007). Fundamentals of Geophysics. Second edition. 393 pp. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. ISBN-13 978-0-511-35447-2. |
[ 39 ] | Löfman, J. (1999). Site Scale Groundwater Flow in Hästholmen. Helsinki, Finland: Posiva Oy. Posiva, 99-12 pp. ISBN: 951-652-067-7. |
[ 40 ] | National Research Council (2012). Sea-Level Rise the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future. Washington, DC, USA: The National Academies Press. [Cited 01 July 2021 |
[ 41 ] | Nordman, M.; Peltola, A.; Bilker-Koivula, M.; and Lahtinen, S. (2020). Past and future sea level changes and land uplift in the Baltic Sea seen by geodetic observations. International Association of Geodesy Symposia. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. [Cited 01 July 2021 |
[ 42 ] | NSL-National land survey of Finland (2020). National land survey of Finland: Land Uplift, [Online |
[ 43 ] | Okko, M. (1967). The relation between raised shores and present land uplift in Finland during the Past 8000 Years. Annales Academie Seientiarum Fennicae, Series A, III. Geologica- Geographica 93. Helsinki: Geological Survey of Finland.’. |
[ 44 ] | Poutanen, M. and Steffen, H. (2014). Land uplift at Kvarken Archiplago/high cost UNESCO World Heritage area. Geophysica (2014), 50(2), 49-64 pp. Masala, Finland and Gävle, Sweden: Finnish Geodetic Institute and Lantmäteriet. |
[ 45 ] | Påsse, T. and Andersson, L. (2005). Shore-level displacement in Fennoscandia calculated from empirical data. Gff, vol. 127, no. 4, pp. 253-268. [Cited 01 July 2021 |
[ 46 ] | Rahmstorf, S. (2007). A semi-empirical approach to projecting future sea-level rise. Science (ww.siecnemag.org) 19 January 2007 Vol. 315 368-370 pp. ‘. |
[ 47 ] | Rajasree, B.R., Deo, M.C. and Sheela Nair, L. (2016). Effect of climate change on shoreline shifts at a straight and continuous Coast. Journal of Estuarine, Costal and Self Science: Science Direct 183 (2016) 221 - 234. Elsevier publications. [Cited 01 July 2021 |
[ 48 ] | Seppä, H.; Tikkanen, M. and Mäkiaho, J.- P. (2012). Tilting of lake Pielinen, eastern Finland – an example of extreme transgressions and regressions caused by different post-glacial isostatic uplift. Estonian Journal of Earth Science (2012), 61, 3, pp. 149 – 161. [Cited 01 July 2021 |
[ 49 ] | Steffen, H.; Barletta, V.; Kollo, K.; Milne, G.; Nordman, M.; Olsson, P.; Simpson, M.; Tarasov, L; & Ågren, J. (2016). NKG201xGIA – A Model of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment for Fennoscandia. Gothenburg, Sweden: LANTMÄTERIET. |
[ 50 ] | Svensson, Nils-Olof (1991). Postglacial land uplift patterns of south Sweden and the Baltic Sea region. Terra Nova, vol. 3, no. 4, pp. 369-378. [Cited 01 July 2021 |
[ 51 ] | Vartiainen, T. (1980). Succession of island vegetation in the land uplift area of the northernmost Gulf of Bothnia, Finland. Acta bot. Fennica 115, 1–105 pp. Acta Botanica Fennica. ISBN: 951-9469-09-5. |
[ 52 ] | Vestøl, Olav (2006). Determination of postglacial land uplift in Fennoscandia from leveling, tide-gauges and continuous GPS stations using least squares collocation. Springer-Verlag: J Geod (2006) Vol. 80: 248–258 pp. [Cited 01 July 2021 |
[ 53 ] | Vestøl, Olav et al. (2019). NKG2016LU: A new land uplift model for Fennoscandia and the Baltic Region. Springer: Journal of Geodesy (2019) Vol 93: 1759-1779 pp. [Cited 01 July 2021 |
[ 54 ] | Wetzel, R.G. (2001). Limnology- Lakes and River Ecosystems. Third edition, 1006 pp. California, USA: Elsevier Science (USA). ISBN: 0-12-744760-1. |
[ 55 ] | Yle News (2016). Race Between Land Uplift and Sea Level Rise Begins in Archipelago. [Online |